Philippine Central Bank forecasts lower remittances due to Middle East, Japan events
Manila, Metro Manila, Philippines (AHN) – The Philippine Central Bank said Monday it may reduce remittance forecasts for 2011 because of the political developments in the Middle East and the natural calamity in Japan that would impact the ability of overseas Filipino workers to send money home.
Prior to these developments, the Central Bank estimated remittances by overseas worksers would grow by 8 percent this year to reach $20 billion.
The bank also predicted a record $68 to $70 billion level in gross international reserves and $6 to $8 billion balance of payments surplus.
For several years, the OFW remittances had been growing annually as more Filipinos opt to work overseas where the pay is several times over local wages. Despite the global financial crisis in 2008, the remittances were not affected.
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said the central bank will review in April the GIR and BOP projections, factoring in the developments in the Middle East and Japan.
There are millions of Filipino workers in the Middle East, but the bulk of them (or more than 2 million) are in Saudi Arabia, where the civil unrest contagion has not yet reached crisis level. There are more than 350,000 Filipinos in Japan, including children of Japanese-Filipino unions.
OFW remittances have propped up the Philippine economy since the country started to send workers to the Middle East in the mid-1970s. The workers’ remittances account for at least 10 percent of the Philippine gross domestic product.
Middle East-based OFWs contributed 16 percent of $18.76-billion total remittances in 2010, which was up from $17.35 billion in 2009. Remittances from Japan topped the money sent by Filipino workers from Asian nations, which comprised 12 percent of the 2010 total. Money from Japan reached $883 million last year.
Tetangco said the central bank will consider current and future trends, including impact of the higher oil prices.
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